Description: In this article, we summarize inflationary factors that may result in a sharp increase in interest rates and implications for life insurer convexity risk exposure, most notably to dynamic policyholder lapsation. We further provide insights into potential ALM strategies to mitigate this convexity risk. Due to the prolonged low-interest rate environment and low minimum interest rate guarantees offered to policyholders, liability convexity is higher than prior historical periods, which results in life insurers’ ALM positions being extremely vulnerable to short-term interest rate spikes. Convexity mismatches cause issues for life insurers under both rising and declining interest rate scenarios. This means that life insurers are not compensated for taking convexity risk and, therefore, convexity matching should always be considered in the asset optimization process. There are mixed signals from policymakers and financial markets regarding potential inflationary and sharply rising interest rate scenarios. The key takeaway is that life insurers are not compensated for taking convexity risk and it is the right time for insurers to review convexity exposure. There are different approaches available to mitigate convexity exposure through rebalancing of asset positions and hedges within each life insurer’s risk limits.

Description: In this article, we summarize inflationary factors that may result in a sharp increase in interest rates and implications for life insurer convexity risk exposure, most notably to dynamic policyholder lapsation. We further provide insights into potential ALM strategies to mitigate this convexity risk. Due to the prolonged low-interest rate environment and low minimum interest rate guarantees offered to policyholders, liability convexity is higher than prior historical periods, which results in life insurers’ ALM positions being extremely vulnerable to short-term interest rate spikes. Convexity mismatches cause issues for life insurers under both rising and declining interest rate scenarios. This means that life insurers are not compensated for taking convexity risk and, therefore, convexity matching should always be considered in the asset optimization process. There are mixed signals from policymakers and financial markets regarding potential inflationary and sharply rising interest rate scenarios. The key takeaway is that life insurers are not compensated for taking convexity risk and it is the right time for insurers to review convexity exposure. There are different approaches available to mitigate convexity exposure through rebalancing of asset positions and hedges within each life insurer’s risk limits.

Description: The management of the investments of an insurance enterprise has undergone a considerable evolution since the pioneering work of Redington in the mid 20th century. Best practices have evolved to incorporate ever more complex insurance liabilities, expanding investment asset classes and global market opportunities. Strategic asset allocation (SAA), liability driven investing, and other robust optimization approaches form the core of the professional management of insurance company investments.

Description: Summary of recent surveys to life actuaries regarding assumptions surrounding policyholder behavior in the tail for universal life with secondary guarantees and minimum guarantees on variable annuities. This information is intended to examine and ultimately give guidance to actuaries on how to set policyholder assumptions in extreme scenarios.

Description: The International Association of Insurance Supervisors (IAIS) continues its development of the Insurance Capital Standard (ICS) with the introduction of ICS 1.0 in summer 2017 and plans for ICS 2.0 in 2019. This session will provide updates on the development of the standards and summarize insights from Field Testing and ICS Consultations. This session will deliver an overview of the framework and provide industry and regulatory perspectives on potential implications and next steps.

Description: Applications of Stress Testing

Description: In this article, the author explains what a CAT model is.

Description: The author constructed the efficient frontier of new business sales by modeling the embedded value and economic capital against a universe of possible growth rates of the three lines of business in a typical three-year planning horizon. The ERM function can use the efficient frontier of new business to provide a more rigorous analysis of the impact of growth rates on the firm’s overall capital efficiency and value creation, hence forming a feedback loop with the businesses in the planning process to optimize the growth strategy.

Description: The Market Cost of Capital approach has emerged as the standard for estimating risk margins for insurers' fair value balance sheets. This paper takes some of the ideas developed for valuing life insurance liabilities and applies them to the problem of valuing credit risky bonds. The basic idea is that credit spreads should cover the cost a) best estimate defaults plus the cost of holding capital for b) contagion risk (e.g. a credit crunch) and c) parameter risk, this risk that the best estimate is wrong and must be revised. We argue that the margins required for parameter risk can capture liquidity issues. In addition, the models developed here allow the cost of capital rate itself to be a random variable which allows credit spreads to open and close stochastically. Finally, the paper argues that it is reasonable to include something like AA best estimate default rates and liquidity spreads when valuing insurance liabilities. The main rationale for doing so is the idea that there are elements of the total credit risk issue that can be hedged between the assets and liabilities.

Description: In this article, the author examines how a seemingly impossible event becomes a harsh or startling reality.

Description: In this article, we provide practical guidance for understanding how to develop and apply an effective risk appetite statement.

Description: This article highlights some of OSFI’s expectations regarding the ORSA process, and provides general feedback and observations from OSFI’s reading of 2014 ORSA reports (including KMR) and discussions with insurers.

Description: The editors provide highlights of the articles included in the August 2015 issue of Risk Management.

Description: This paper develops a conceptually rigorous formulation of the cost of capital method for estimating margins for mortality, lapse, expense and other forms of underwriting risk.

Description: Key points of the conceptual framework of China’s new solvency system, the “China Risk Oriented Solvency System” (C-ROSS).

Description: Abstract: A model for analyzing the probability and severity of default of sovereign entities and banks. The methodology analyzes the risks inherent in the investment of debt of sovereign governments and large financial institutions side-by-side, taking into consideration macroeconomic interactions among the sovereign fiscal and monetary authorities, the financial institutions, and the real economy. The signature aspect of the methodology is that it adapts a Merton-style default model to use explicit measures of sovereign assets and asset volatility.

Description: A collection of essays that discuss the principles and ideas underpinning the ORSA initiative and the risk metrics used for decision making.

Description: This paper demonstrates the use of Quantile Regression in the development and understanding of conditional value at risk (VaR) models for enterprise risk management.

Description: Risk management and capital budgeting are two critical components of the corporate decision process. They often need to be considered jointly at the corporate level because of their natural interaction through the dependent risk exposures and other synergetic relationships within an intricate corporate structure in a dynamic business environment. . This paper develops an integrated framework that aligns these two important corporate strategies across business divisions to optimize the streamlined enterprise strategic goal in a multi-period setting. The proposed integrated framework can serve as a practical guideline for corporate executives to optimally coordinate capital budgeting and risk management at the enterprise level.

Description: Discusses how a small health insurance company may be able to create and successfully maintain its wealth through careful actuarial model considerations used in calculating reserves. A traditional and a conservative approach to calculating the reserves are compared. The conservative approach was found particularly useful when estimating reserves for an individual health insurance company with numerous product lines each relatively small in volume.

Description: This monograph was presented at the 2011 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, held March 14-16 in Chicago. The author, writing from a property-liability insurance perspective, notes that capital allocation is a theoretical exercise because all of a firm’s capital could be depleted to cover a significant loss arising from any one segment. However, firms do need to allocate capital for pricing, risk management and performance evaluation. In this paper, the cost of capital in financial markets is incorporated into the Ruhm-Mango-Kreps algorithm to yield one allocation that reflects the true cost of capital an insurer would face.

Description: This paper introduces a minor modification to the Wacek framework that restores market consistency and additivity. The modification shifts the basis of the cost-of-capital risk margin embedded in the fair value loss reserve from an insurer’s own solvency capital requirement with respect to its claim obligations as prescribed by Solvency II to the required market-clearing capital implied by those obligations, which depends not only on the internal characteristics of the unpaid claim portfolio but also on its correlation with the total market portfolio of unpaid claims.

Description: In this Chapter we present a novel way for estimating aggregated EC figures based on Bayesian copula estimation. Contrary to the classic approach of using a single inter-risk- correlation matrix we derive a probability distribution of possible correlation matrices that enables us to tackle the important issue of parameter uncertainty. Presented at 2010 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Society of Actuaries, April 12-15, 2010.

Description: This paper discusses both the theoretical and the application aspects of stress testing in managing enterprise risks. Effective stress testing maximizes the risk adjusted enterprise profit by controlling major risks financial, strategic, operational and hazard upon identifying risk metrics and modeling the correlations. A case study is included for demonstration purposes.

Description: This is the abstract of a paper that considers the pricing of equity-indexed annuities using risk measures and presents dynamic hedging strategies underlying these valuations. Since these products involve mortality as well as financial risks, the authors combine the actuarial and financial approaches to protect insurance companies against the unhedgeable mortality risk.

Description: This paper is Part 1 of a two-part submission. Part 2, “An Alternative Approach to Capital Allocation,” discusses using risk-replicating techniques that directly calculate the cost of capital. Such techniques can be used as a substitute for capital allocation. This paper expands upon current capital analysis by introducing a practical approach that considers the objectives of all stakeholders of an insurance company in setting appropriate capital targets.

Description: This paper expands upon current capital analysis by introducing a practical approach that considers the objectives of all stakeholders of an insurance company in setting appropriate capital targets. In addition, the paper introduces a technique for estimating capital adequacy that is based on mapping stochastic distributions of regulatory and rating agency capital measures to observable financial rating transition matrices.

Description: As an alternative to the widely-used 'return on economic capital' RAROC, this paper proposes a performance measure consistent with standard valuation models, and discusses its implications for prudential regulation. From 2007 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, M-AS07-1.

Description: The purpose of this paper is to build a bridge between the traditional methods of looking at financial risk and insurance risk. The paper starts by explaining the concepts behind VaR models of economic capital used in banking. Differences between actuarial and financial views of risk are reviewed and explained. The paper concludes with proposing, developing, and parameterizing a true VaR model of insurance loss reserve risk, which combines several lines of business. From 2006 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, M-AS06-1.

Description: This paper expands upon current capital analysis by introducing a practical approach that considers the objectives of all stakeholders on an insurance company in setting appropriate capital targets. From 2006 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, M-AS06-1.

Description: ongoing discussion of the proper interest rate to use in discounting liability cash flows to reflect credit risk of the insurer in a fair value accounting system

Description: This presentation from Session 85 of the SOA June 2005 New Orleans Health/Pension Spring Meeting discusses recent developments in the area of capital planning, what are appropriate capital levels, and how health actuaries should be involved in it. From the Record of the Society of Actuaries, Vol. 31, No. 2.

Description: Economic capital is an embedded part of the banking risk management and regulatory framework. The insurance industry has relied on rating agency and regulatory formulas that have been criticized as overcapitalizing and not appropriately differentiating risk drivers in the capital formulation. The emergence of C-3 Phase I and C-3 Phase II have introduced an economic approach to capital in the insurance industry. This half-day seminar takes a detailed look at the subject of economic capital. From the Record of the Society of Actuaries 2005, Volume 31, No. 1: 2005 New Orleans Life Spring Meeting, May 22-24, 2005, Session 9 Seminar.

Description: Presented at May 2005 Spring Meeting. Panelists discuss annuity risk management, with particular focus on RBC and the proposed Actuarial Guideline on reserving, and how this can be applied to new product development as well as in-force product management.

Description: Discussion of how non actuaries are taking on many of the enterprise risk management roles of insurance companies. Discusses changes actuaries need to make to re-assert their roles. Also discusses roles actuaries can play in enterprise risk management outside of the insurance and pension industries

Description: This presentation is a panel discussion, session number 43PD, from the 2002 Valuation Actuary Symposium, held September 19-20 in Lake Buena Vista, FL. The panelists provide an overview of the current risk-based-capital [RBC] requirements for life insurers, as well as recent and potential changes to RBC. They discuss reinsurance, including off shore solutions. Recent changes they discuss include Phase I C-3, interest-rate risk for annuities and single premium life, common stock changes, and deferred-tax recognition. The panelists also discuss the proposed stochastic modeling standard C-3 Phase II for variable annuities. Discussion from participants is included.

Description: Presented at May 2002 Spring Meeting. This session covers NAIC 2001 changes to RBC requirements, the impact they have had on regulators, the rating agency reaction and proposed changes for 2002.

Description: Presented at May 2002 Spring Meeting. Discusses the status of the second phase of the AAA C-3 Risk project. This project is leading to an updated NAIC filing requirement and is a step toward fair value. The specific focus is on equity risk and bond funds in the distribution tails. Products covered include variable life and annuities.

Description: This paper addresses the allocation of solvency capital in multi- line financial businesses. Although this paper is uniformly applicable to financial enterprises of all types, the terminology in the paper is mainly that of insurance. The TailVaR risk measure is extended in a natural way to allocating capital to each of the business units. This method of allocation allocates capital in a way that is invariant over the method of decomposing the enterprise into business units. Analytic results are derived in the case of multivariate Normal risks. The key result of this paper is that the TailVaR-based proportional allocation of total required capital is identical to that based on mean-variance considerations analogous to the CAPM in the case of the multivariate Normaldistribution.

Description: Presented at October 1996 Annual Meeting. This session presents and discusses the NAIC's model bill for risk-based capital as it relates to health insurance.

Description: Presented at June 1996 Spring Meeting. A panel of experts discuss risk management and capital management issues for disability insurers and the potential role of reinsurance.

Description: This panel will discuss the current status of NAIC activities with respect to risk-based capital RBC. The potential impact on financial reporting with respect to health products, specifically, indemnity, HMO, disability, and nontraditional products will also be discussed. From the Record of the Society of Actuaries, Vol.21, No. 4a.

Description: Presented at September 1995 Valuation Actuary Symposium. Discusses surplus management, including RBC, the capital management process and techniques, allocations of capital, raising capital, and rating agencies.

Description: Presented at September 1994 Valuation Actuary Symposium. This session presents the approaches of a stock and a mutual company to surplus management, and the application of recent research in risk theory to surplus management.

Description: Presented at May 1986 Spring Meeting. This session discussion is about how much surplus is needed, how it is determined, treatment of participating policyholders, approaches for measurement, and regulatory and professional body requirements affecting surplus relief reinsurance.

Description: Presented at May 1985 Spring Meeting. Discusses: Target surplus formulas for specific product lines, Projecting product line surplus needs, How cost of capital is charged to product lines, Criteria to use in allocating capital to or withdrawing capital from specific product lines, Differing techniques appropriate for stock and mutual companies, Differing techniques appropriate for the United States and Canada, How capital allocation relates to regulatory requirements, How capital allocation relates to competition in other industries.

Description: The Society's Task Force to Study Risk of Loss from Changes in the Interest Rate Environment C-3 Risk Task Force was formed in March 1981 with the charge to quantify C-3 risk. The Task Force made a preliminary report as part of a panel discussion on C-3 risk at the Society's October 1981 meeting in Atlanta. This presentation provides an update on the progress to date and its future plans.